Extra Stuff: Gambling Ramblings Peter A. Griffin on Amazon.com.FREE. shipping on qualifying offers. Peter Griffin, renowned gambling mathematician and author of The Theory of Blackjack, has explored the mathematics of gambling for more than two decades. Extra Stuff is a collection of his most famous magazine articles and papers.
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What college? I have kids applying for college soon and want to make sure it's not on their list.
let's focus the blackjack first?
in single deck, 93V3, the right strategy is to hit, 84v3, it is to stand.
what is the reason behind it?
another one. which hand has more EV?
11V5
109V8
AAV4(one split, one card)
we use our own calculations. and we say how to calculate it.
or we say how many sites on the internet can calcuate it without downloaded software.beachbumbabs
Administrator
What college? I have kids applying for college soon and want to make sure it's not on their list.
I take it you speak fluent Chinese, that you can criticize his English twice now?
Yeah, didn't think so.
No doubt his posts are a tough slog. You've made your point. I suggest you block him, or at least back off insulting him. Thanks.
i may use it a term for the thread, the playing eor. all cards will be counted differently. in Peter Griffin, the theory of blackjack, fifth edition, chapter 4 ,5, this topic was covered).
another example. if 16V10, A12345 is small card, 6,7,8,9. 10 is big card....
i want to find sth in common for playing all hands: like if the card makes us bust. if the cards are making dealier, 11 or 16.( first card). bust( second card)... that the logic is so twisted when covering all different hands make my thinking lasting no more than one hour while the logic of others, more than weeks. which make my english poorer, i had my english criticized heavily and grouply some years ago..i knew i learned this language hard.i learned physics and industrial designing and boxing hard.
to add sth, even betting EOR, we use high-lo, when, in a roud, we see a lot 7s, we may temporarily add 0.5 if only we know we need to do sth when seeing 9s. also 2... then we are using Wong' halves. we can go even further:
2 0.7
3 0.9
4 1.2
5 1.5
6 0.9
7 0.5
8 -0.1
9 -0.5
10 -1.0
A -1.0
(dealer stands S17, DAS, MAcau style ENHC, data from 'bjstrat'. calculated by me. i will soon learn to calucate it myself).
the logic here: 4,5 will makes dealer 20,21 from 16, but 6 is not. so 4, 5 is more important to dealer). if too complex, there is explanation: we don't really use it when we are tired or we need to do sth on clumps, Aces. we don't even use any deviations because of importance order. but when we have nothing else to have our attention, we can do sth more from our understanding how betting and playing is working.
i will write more on this kind of things if only i feel writing is helping me to think. and by the way, i am writing them in Chinese in China, just for myself.
by true count, the small errors are never a big problem. if we have 2% edge, we take it as 3%, even at 4%(but not 5%, as i simulated, no doubles splits considered), we can even make better final result with some bigger bankroll fluctuations(the 3 %) . which means human adjustment is not necessairly doing worse then computer.
for fluctuation, some hands like A2V5, A4V4, 9V3, ,9V7(deviation) ,22v3, 22v7,we can make less doubles, splits, which make few EV difference. but work more on fluctuation.
the hand A4v4, after a lot of cards removed, we really don't know which card removed is good or bad for this hand. the EOR is so different from the counting systems. we just do it by our feeling, not by maths. or if we see a lot of Tens dealt, we double. or if we win, we double, we lose, we don't double.
maybe the topics are talked to death before by many authorities, i just share what i think. not to state or claim.( i don't know which english word works my intention out), i am still reading and learning from others. and i now feel strange by keeping writing more without any feedback. i will stop for some days.
My post was not politically correct. Honestly, I dashed it off quickly, although what I might have said that might have passed muster with the PC police was simply, 'Say what?'
Regarding the tone of my comment, there were comments from two other forum members that also spoke to this issue. I won't say that they agreed with me, but the comments seemed in the same vein.
The OP responded, I think, by telling us that he had majored in English in college. Not sure. But that's what I got from his reply.
I answered that I wanted to make sure that my kids did not apply to that college. Again, off topic, politically incorrect, and insensitive. No question.
I was taken to task by a moderator for criticizing his lack of English, since I was not fluent in Chinese.
I was advised to 'back off.'
So I did. I sat back and waited. I wanted to see what the blackjack experts and the diligent moderator would contribute to the post - to see what advice and support they would offer that would address the actual topic presented in the original message.
I was sure that if I just 'backed off' that the OP would be engaged by our other members in a thoughtful, respectful, diverse, culturally aware, sensitive, and erudite discussion about the intricate vagaries and 'emanating penumbas' of basic strategy, as is always the case in this forum. I expected to see references and citations from the writings of Thorpe, Wong, Huston, Griffin, Confucius, Sun Yat Sen and Chairman Mao.
I was sure that my criticism - that the post was unintelligible - would be shown to be the horrible, insensitive thing that it was, because of all of the wonderful exchange of ideas that would ensue, demonstrating clearly that I was wrong, once I stood back and got out of the way.
But a month later, nobody has chosen to respond on-topic in this thread. Nobody, not even our vigilant moderator.
I'll accept that my two earlier posts were as horrible and unthinking as anyone wants them to be. I apologize sincerely to the OP if he took my responses to be insensitive. I 'll offer no excuses or comparisons with other posts on this forum.
But I would like, respectfully, to ask why, in over a month, no one has responded to the OP with any comments relevant to his post?
Administrator
Over a month ago I replied to the OP's original post suggesting that if he was looking for advice on this forum, he would stand a better chance of getting helpful responses if he posted in more easily understood English. He sounded serious to me, but honestly I really could make no sense of what he was talking about. It had something to do with counting, and possible improvements or questions about basic strategy.
My post was not politically correct. Honestly, I dashed it off quickly, although what I might have said that might have passed muster with the PC police was simply, 'Say what?'
Regarding the tone of my comment, there were comments from two other forum members that also spoke to this issue. I won't say that they agreed with me, but the comments seemed in the same vein.
The OP responded, I think, by telling us that he had majored in English in college. Not sure. But that's what I got from his reply.
I answered that I wanted to make sure that my kids did not apply to that college. Again, off topic, politically incorrect, and insensitive. No question.
I was taken to task by a moderator for criticizing his lack of English, since I was not fluent in Chinese.
I was advised to 'back off.'
So I did. I sat back and waited. I wanted to see what the blackjack experts and the diligent moderator would contribute to the post - to see what advice and support they would offer that would address the actual topic presented in the original message.
I was sure that if I just 'backed off' that the OP would be engaged by our other members in a thoughtful, respectful, diverse, culturally aware, sensitive, and erudite discussion about the intricate vagaries and 'emanating penumbas' of basic strategy, as is always the case in this forum. I expected to see references and citations from the writings of Thorpe, Wong, Huston, Griffin, Confucius, Sun Yat Sen and Chairman Mao.
I was sure that my criticism - that the post was unintelligible - would be shown to be the horrible, insensitive thing that it was, because of all of the wonderful exchange of ideas that would ensue, demonstrating clearly that I was wrong, once I stood back and got out of the way.
But a month later, nobody has chosen to respond on-topic in this thread. Nobody, not even our vigilant moderator.
I'll accept that my two earlier posts were as horrible and unthinking as anyone wants them to be. I apologize sincerely to the OP if he took my responses to be insensitive. I 'll offer no excuses or comparisons with other posts on this forum.
But I would like, respectfully, to ask why, in over a month, no one has responded to the OP with any comments relevant to his post?
Point well taken. I appreciate that you made an effort to understand. I think the rest of us are in a similar situation, not really comprehending any nuance or game flow from Tom's proposal.
I think perhaps there does need to be a truly bilingual person in the conversation, or else we won't be able to offer any insight or advice on the game. That's definitely not me.
I don't think most easily available translators are useful for a technical discussion of any depth. Maybe there's one that speaks math and someone knows of it?<snip>maybe i just ask:
in single deck, 93V3, the right strategy is to hit, 84v3, it is to stand.
what is the reason behind it?
if there is a reason, then this reason works for the playing efficiency of all hands of blackjack.
tomchina123,
Assuming the game is S17, according to the Wizard of Odds (see https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/9/1ds17r4/ ), for 84 vs. 3 the Stand EV is -0.220209, while the Hit EV is -0.229755. Since the Stand EV is larger (in this case, less negative) than the Hit EV, BS is to Stand.
On the other hand, for 93 vs. 3 the Stand EV is -0.261815, while the Hit EV is -0.255712. Since the Hit EV is larger (in this case, less negative) than the Stand EV, BS is to Hit.
You are correct when you say 'if there is a reason, then this reason works for the playing efficiency of all hands of blackjack': in every case, the optimal choice is the option with the highest EV.
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
.......1) let's think about the IE. nsurance strategy. A is counted by as -1. but it should be counted as 1. in this case, for a new shoe, we need tc4+ to make it +ev to bet insurance. as the cards travel, we need 3+, 2+, 1+. just because the A is +1, not -1. but we count it as -1(or 0). we can adjust it by not hard burden for memory if only we know why it is like this. if you agree with this, all hands will be like this, if only you understand why it is like this, you can do some good devi on strategy.......
I haven't been able to understand the whole post, but you are on the right track when you said for an insurance side count you need to treat 'A as 1'.
If you have found a way to make it '... not hard burden for memory if only we know why it is like this', then good for you.
It seems like you are good enough to be able to use your strategy^*^, either with a team or by yourself.
^*^: Edit, this originally said 'system', but then I remembered that on this site 'system' is generally considered a 'bad word'.
But for someone like me, I would only be able to play at a live internet casino using a more complex count than 'hi lo'.
For keeping a side count, I would use:
1. A 'true %' by using a spreadsheet to keep track of all the cards left etc, and when the 'non-ten' (A to 9) cards are less than 2/3 of the shoe that is left, then it would be +EV to make the insurance bet.
2. Or a count like the one shown in the link below (for when your are in a 'brick and mortar' casino):
https://www.888casino.com/blog/side-bets/card-counting-blackjack-insurance
..... we need to focus both on our cards and dealer's card......
That is also true, if the player's first card is worth X, the dealer shows the same card it is worth Y, and if the player looked at their cards after looking at the dealer's up-card, it is worth Z (see examples):
Example 1: if the player's first card is a 5 it is worth -19.65% (to the player on average) and if the dealer is showing a 5 in the same hand, it is worth +2.995% (on average).
Also, if the player hadn't looked at their cards until they saw the dealer's up-card, then the average EV of that hand would be +19.52%.
Example 2: if the player's first card is a 10 it is worth +14.35% (to the player on average) and if the dealer is showing a 10 in the same hand, it is worth -0.9487% (on average).
Also, if the player hadn't looked at their cards until they saw the dealer's up-card, then the average EV of that hand would be -17.36%.
Rules used for above examples: infinite deck game where BJ pays 3/2, and dealer stands on 17, double any 2 card total, split once and double after split.
Used MGP's BJ CA and http://www.bjstrat.net/cgi-bin/cdca.cgi^^^, for working out the above values.
^^^: used 41000000 decks for this site, because it doesn't have an 'infinite deck option'.
Peter Griffin Blackjack Hit Me Song
Hope this was helpful.-------------------------
...I think perhaps there does need to be a truly bilingual person in the conversation, or else we won't be able to offer any insight or advice on the game. ...
I agree with the above, and you (tomchina123) should ask if there are people on this site who are good at blackjack and can understand Chinese well, as I think a lot of people want to help you out, if they can (this seems unlikely, as I think they would have replied to you by now if they could).
Lastly, I congratulate you for using your non-native language to try to write a post that you think could benefit other readers and yourself.
English*** is one of the hardest languages to learn as a 2nd language.
***: English is my first language but I have a communication disorder, so I can find it hard to understand things or get my point across clearly.
I think what he said “ major in English “ means he was in Chinese college chose English as his foreign language instead of Russian. ( I may be wrong).
that is right. i studied english as a majoy in China. i wrote and spoke Chinese english.
if there is an attitue to choose first before reading this read, i ask them to think i can do combinational anylysis on blackjack, poker and bac. in blackjack, it is like hand cacluator in wizard's site. i have full unerstanding of what i am doing. it is by excel. it works. i make comments on what i've found in the game.
i had wanted to use 'hand EOR'. this term will explain a lot things. and i have done eors for all hands by my own calcuation, except the splitting.
i give another full example:
Peter Griffin Blackjack Hit Me Video
by 12V6(s17). the index of Wong is 0. while the I18 is -1. what will reader believe?EV D -1.7%
2 removed 0.2%
3 removed 0.2%
4 removed 0.2%
5 removed 0.2%
6 removed 0.1%
7 removed 0.2%
8 removed 0.2%
9 removed 0.2%
10 removed -0.4%
A removed 0.3%
the EV D= ev difference. it means, if we hit, we need =1.7. then we can see 1)1 is working oppositely. 2)789 is working.
so by true count, we need to assume how many 789 is removed. then TC 0 OR -1 is write or wrong. for this hand i prefer -1.
this is just an example. but every hand, the eor is different. we don't necessarily need to remember all. just to know in indices are not exact math. we try to use what we can do.
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Peter Griffin Blackjack Hit Meaning
Card counters operate under the (correct) assumption that even perfect blackjack strategy is a losing proposition. That’s because basic strategy gives no indication of the likelihood of a dealer or player bust. Basic strategy requires you to hedge your bets in certain playing situations, meaning you are just as likely to win as to lose.
Keeping a running count improves on basic blackjack strategy by indicating when you can deviate from that strategy and still have a decent chance of winning. If you know there are more small cards than large ones, you can safely take hits on those pesky 15 and 16 point hands and improve your chances of beating the dealer. You can use a running count to know when to increase your bet size to maximize your profits, and when to decrease your bets to protect yourself from potential losses.
These changes in the bet size are known as a “betting spread,” a tool used by counters to increase profits and decrease losses without drawing the attention of the casino. Ideally, you can make small changes to your bets without the casino figuring out that you’re a card counter and (politely) asking you to leave.
Betting Spreads and Positive Expectation
The name of the game in card counting is turning blackjack into a positive expectation game. Peter Griffin’s book “The Theory of Blackjack” worked out some numbers pertinent to card counters. Using standard Las Vegas rules and a basic High-Low card counting system, a player’s advantage with perfect strategy when the count is zero is -0.56%. According to Griffin, each increase by 1 of the running count improves the player’s advantage by +0.5%. Naturally, every decrease by 1 of the count reduces the player’s advantage by 0.5%.
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Positive Count and Percentages
We know that, statistically, a standard Vegas game of blackjack will only offer certain counts some of the time. Positive expectation only happens with a +2 count, which will only happen about 8% of the time. Truth be told, a positive count can only be expected about 18% of the time you’re playing–that’s why it is important to spread your bets, even if you’re keeping a running count and playing according to basic strategy.
What’s the Best Bet Spread?
People much smarter than you and me have determined that a bet spread between 1 and 5 units is the best way to avoid undue attention from the casino. By this reckoning, you should bet 1 unit for a +1 count, all neutral counts, and all negative counts. A +2 count means 2 units, a +3 count means 3 units, a +4 count means 4 units, and anything over +4 means you bet 5 units. Going over 5 units is likely to attract unwanted casino heat.
Using this system and perfect blackjack strategy, you can expect a positive return of about 0.14%. You’re not going to get rich with small wins under this system, but it will turn a negative expectation game into a positive one.
Larger Bet Spreads
The only way to increase your expectation is to use a 1-10 unit bet spread, which is sure to get you kicked out of any casino eventually. Still, as long as you can get away with a 1-10 unit spread, you can play with an edge of about 0.57%, or about three and a half times greater than with a 1-5 unit spread.
Since casinos have implemented rules and strategies to counteract card counting, the easy to beat blackjack tables have disappeared. Casinos are now instituting a 6:5 blackjack payout rule, for instance, that automatically makes the game not worth the time it takes to count cards and develop a bet spread. Perfect blackjack strategy is often as good as you can get at today’s blackjack tables, since even the most aggressive counting and bet spreading gives you only about a .5% edge.